🎯 Other

How many 7.0 or above earthquakes in 2026?

Live
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

About this market

This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
Resolution
Dec 31, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryOther
StatusOpen