About Predictboard

The intelligence layer
for prediction markets

The leading prediction market exchanges are producing the most honest real-time forecasts on earth. Predictboard is the single place to read, compare, and understand them — without opening multiple tabs, normalising conflicting data formats, or missing a price movement that matters.

0+
Markets tracked
2 min
Data refresh cycle
100%
CFTC-regulated sources
Why we exist
“The crowd’s best guess about the future shouldn’t require five browser tabs to read.”

For most of prediction markets' history, sophisticated forecasting tools were either locked inside academic institutions or scattered across platforms that didn't talk to each other. The CFTC's landmark recognition of Kalshi in 2024, followed by Polymarket's regulated US expansion in 2025, changed the category entirely. These are now serious federal financial instruments — tracking everything from Fed rate decisions to World Cup outcomes — with real money and real forecasting accuracy behind them.

But the tooling never caught up. Traders were manually checking multiple platforms. Journalists were quoting stale screenshots. Researchers had no unified, normalised data source. Predictboard was built to close that gap.

We're an exchange-agnostic intelligence layer — not a trading platform, not an exchange with a thumb on the scale. Every probability displayed here is sourced directly from exchange APIs, normalised to a consistent format, and refreshed every two minutes. No editorialising. No interpolation. No invented numbers.

The product

What Predictboard actually does

📡
Real-time aggregation
Every 2 minutes, we pull all active markets from every connected exchange, normalise their data formats, and build a unified probability feed. One source. Always current.
⚖️
Cross-exchange comparison
The same event is often priced differently across exchanges. We surface those differences automatically — so traders see where the better price is and researchers see genuine disagreement.
📊
Market intelligence tools
Movers (biggest price changes), Consensus (crowd signals), category hubs, and event playbooks — structured views that turn raw probability data into actionable intelligence.
🔌
Embeds & data access
Probability cards for editorial use, API access for researchers, and embeddable widgets for publishers — the data infrastructure the prediction market ecosystem needs to reach a mainstream audience.
For traders

Stop switching tabs. Start trading smarter.

If you trade across prediction market exchanges, you already know the problem: prices diverge, opportunities appear and vanish in minutes, and no single platform shows you the full picture. Predictboard puts every exchange side by side so price differences are impossible to miss.

The Movers page surfaces the biggest probability shifts in the last 24 hours. Event playbooks give you structured context before the Fed meeting, the World Cup, or election night.

View live markets →
What traders use
Markets dashboard — unified view across all exchanges
Movers — largest price changes in the last 24 hours
Category hubs — crypto, elections, sports, macro
Event playbooks — Super Bowl, Fed meeting, World Cup, elections
Learning centre — free guides from beginner to advanced
For journalists & researchers

The crowd’s forecast, citable.

Prediction markets are increasingly used by major publications as a real-time barometer of public expectation — alongside or instead of polls. Predictboard makes those numbers easy to access, accurate to cite, and straightforward to embed.

Every probability is sourced directly from CFTC-regulated exchanges, timestamped, and documented. Our methodology is published and transparent. Embeddable probability cards let you drop a live market number into any article without writing code.

For academic researchers, we offer historical data exports, API access, and direct partnerships for ongoing data needs.

Request a press data pack →
Media & research access
Embeddable probability widgets

Drop a live market probability into any article or dashboard. Cards update automatically. No API key required for editorial use.

Get embed codeRead our methodology →
For partners & sponsors

Reach the audience
that moves first.

Predictboard's users are traders, analysts, journalists, and researchers — people who consume financial data professionally and act on it. This isn't a general-interest finance audience. It's a concentrated group of high-intent users who arrived specifically to track real-money probability markets.

Sponsorship inventory is deliberately curated to maintain editorial credibility. Partnership formats include newsletter sponsorships, sponsored market pages, and co-branded event coverage during major political and sporting events.

Audience snapshot
Primary audienceActive traders
Secondary audienceJournalists & analysts
Peak traffic eventsFed days, elections, major sports
Formats availableNewsletter · Market pages · Events
Our methodology

How we calculate what you see

A
Fetch & normalise
Every 2 minutes, we pull all active markets from each connected exchange via their official API. Polymarket returns prices as decimals (0.68); Kalshi returns integers or decimals. We normalise everything to a consistent percentage. Always rounded to 2 decimal places.
B
Match & aggregate
When a market appears on multiple exchanges, we classify the match as Verified (same underlying contract) or Similar (same event, different structure). Verified matches produce a volume-weighted average probability. Similar matches are displayed side by side, not averaged.
C
Display & flag
Cross-exchange spread is calculated as the absolute difference between platform probabilities. Divergences above threshold are flagged on Verified pairs and surfaced on Markets pages for traders to investigate. We do not infer cause or recommend action.
Data sources: official exchange APIs only · Refresh cycle: every 2 minutes · No third-party data providers, no scraping, no interpolation.
Data sources

Regulated exchanges only

We aggregate exclusively from regulated prediction market exchanges. Current live sources:

Kalshi
✓ CFTC-Licensed DCM

The first CFTC-designated contract market for event contracts in the US, following its landmark 2024 court victory establishing prediction market contracts as regulated financial derivatives. Settles in USD via bank transfer.

Active markets
2021
Founded
USD
Settlement
Polymarket
✓ CFTC (via QCEX, 2025)

The world's largest prediction market by volume, now CFTC-regulated following its QCEX acquisition in 2025. Backed by ICE (NYSE parent) with a $9B valuation. Operates on Polygon blockchain, settles in USDC stablecoin.

Active markets
2020
Founded
USDC
Settlement
Exchanges are added as the regulated prediction market ecosystem grows. Get in touch if you operate a regulated exchange and want to discuss data integration.

What we are. What we’re not.

✓  What Predictboard is
A real-time data aggregation and analytics tool
A cross-exchange comparison dashboard for prediction market prices
An educational resource for new and experienced traders
A data provider for researchers, journalists, and media organisations
A platform that links to regulated exchanges for actual trading
Revenue-supported via Pro subscriptions, data licensing, and partnerships
✗  What Predictboard is not
A trading platform — we do not execute trades
A custodian — we never hold your funds
A financial adviser — nothing here is investment advice
Owned by or commercially tied to any specific exchange
A source of unregulated or offshore platform data
Responsible for trading decisions made using our data
What we stand for

Three things we won’t trade away

Accuracyover speed

Every probability on Predictboard is sourced directly from the exchange API. We never estimate, interpolate, or editorially adjust a price. If data is delayed, we say so. We would rather display a timestamp than display a guess.

Transparencyabout limits

Prediction markets are not perfect forecasting instruments. Thin markets are flagged. Our full methodology is published here and kept current. When markets have been wrong in notable ways, we document that too — because calibration data is only useful if it includes the misses.

Educationstays free

Every guide, comparison, playbook, and glossary entry on this site is and will remain free. A more informed trader improves the whole ecosystem. We won't paywall the content that makes people smarter.

Get in touch

We read every email

Media & Research Partnerships

We provide real-time probability data to journalists, broadcasters, and academic researchers. Embeddable widgets, API feeds, and white-label data packages are available. Reach out to discuss what you need — we're flexible on format.

Enquire about a partnership