🎯 Other

Megaquake by June 30?

Live
Resolves Jun 30, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
Liquidity

About this market

A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater. This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
Resolution
Jun 30, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume
Liquidity
CategoryOther
StatusOpen
Megaquake by June 30?