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Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?

Closed
Resolves Dec 31, 2025Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Polymarket
50%
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Closed
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza between May 5, 9:00 PM ET, and May 13, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
50%
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Resolution
Dec 31, 2025
closed
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryOther
StatusClosed
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Gaza by...?