🎯 Other
AI capability growth this year?

AI capability growth this year? — At least 1530 score

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
28%
No
72%
No (72%)Yes (28%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$230
Liquidity
$2k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 28%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If an AI model has a score of at least 1530 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · AI capability growth this year?

AI capability growth this year? — At least 1520 score
74%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1540 score
21%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1550 score
14%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1600 score
7%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1650 score
6%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1700 score
5%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1750 score
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
28%
probability of YES
Kalshi
28%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$230
Liquidity$2k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen