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Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026?

Florida Cat 4+ hurricane landfall by Dec 31, 2026? — Category 4 or higher landfall

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
9%
No
91%
No (91%)Yes (9%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$8k
Liquidity
$139

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 9%.

About this market

If a Category 4 or higher hurricane makes landfall in Florida (excluding the Florida Keys) between October 6, 2026 at 11:15:00 AM EDT and December 31, 2026 at 11:59:00 PM EST, inclusive, as reported by NOAA's National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
9%
probability of YES
Kalshi
9%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$8k
Liquidity$139
CategoryOther
StatusOpen