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Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Texas

Live
Resolves Jan 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
46%
No
54%
No (54%)Yes (46%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$389
Liquidity
$873

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 46%.

About this market

If Texas is the state with the highest 2024 Trump-minus-Harris presidential margin among states where a Democratic candidate wins a 2026 U.S. Senate election, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026?

Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Kansas
17%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Alaska
9%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — North Carolina
7%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Iowa
7%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — South Carolina
5%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Mississippi
3%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Ohio
3%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Louisiana
3%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Georgia
2%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Montana
1%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — New Hampshire
1%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Virginia
1%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Minnesota
1%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Florida
1%
Reddest state to elect a Democratic senator in 2026? — Michigan
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
46%
probability of YES
Kalshi
46%Check
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Resolution
Jan 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$389
Liquidity$873
CategoryOther
StatusOpen