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NATO article 5 before 2027?

Live
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Polymarket
50%
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

About this market

If any NATO member country invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty at any time between November 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from NATO (nato.int), however a consensus of credible media will also suffice.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
50%Trade
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Resolution
Dec 31, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryOther
StatusOpen
NATO article 5 before 2027?