🎯 Other

Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?

Live
Resolves Sep 30, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Polymarket
50%
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
50%Trade
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Resolution
Sep 30, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryOther
StatusOpen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?