🎯 Other

Will Russia invade another country in 2026?

Live
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of any UN member state's territory, other than Ukraine's, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by any UN member state, as of market creation, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
50%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Dec 31, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryOther
StatusOpen