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📊 Macro
2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day?

2-year Treasury yield move on July FOMC day? — At least 4bps

Closed
Resolves Jul 29, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
80%
No
20%
No (20%)Yes (80%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Closed
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$53
Liquidity
$60

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 80%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the the absolute difference between the Federal Reserve’s published 2-year Treasury constant maturity yield for July 29, 2026 and its published value for July 28, 2026 for is at least 4bps, then the market resolves to Yes.

Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
80%
probability of YES
Kalshi
80%
TGWA
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Resolution
Jul 29, 2026
closed
Market stats
24h volume$53
Liquidity$60
CategoryMacro
StatusClosed