Macro & Economy Prediction Markets

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Trade the
economy itself

Fed rate decisions, CPI inflation prints, recession risk, GDP, jobs reports and geopolitics. Prediction markets let you position on the macro catalyst directly — separate from how stocks or crypto react to it.

$571KTotal liquidity
69Active markets
8FOMC meetings/yr
🏦
Fed Decision — June
Meeting Jun 16–17
Live
View all macro markets →
Topic
39 markets
Trading on prediction markets
Kalshi
The macro leader. CFTC-regulated markets on FOMC decisions, CPI, GDP, employment — with full probability distributions traditional tools don't offer.
Trade on Kalshi →
Polymarket
Higher volume on flagship Fed markets and deeper geopolitical coverage. Settles in USDC on Polygon.
Trade on Polymarket →
Economic calendar
Jun 17FOMC rate decision & Powell presser
Jul 11June CPI inflation print
Jul 3June jobs report (nonfarm payrolls)
Jul 30Q2 advance GDP estimate
Macro market glossary
FOMC
The Fed committee that sets interest rates. Meets ~8 times a year; each meeting spawns a fresh rate-decision market.
The surprise, not the print
Markets move on the gap between the data and expectations — not the number itself.
Probability distribution
Multi-outcome rate markets show the full spread of possible Fed moves, not just a single point estimate.
Why traders use macro markets
Position on the catalyst, not the reaction
DECOUPLE
Trade the event directly
If you believe the Fed will cut but stocks won't rally because it's already priced in, you can trade the cut itself — without needing equities or crypto to move in your direction.
ACCURACY
As good as the professionals
A Federal Reserve working paper found Kalshi rate forecasts matched professional survey accuracy over a ~150-day horizon and react faster to inflation data and Fed communications.
HEDGE
Information finance, not just speculation
A firm exposed to rates or inflation can use these markets to hedge real-world risk — insuring against an economic shock the same way a futures contract would.