🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — R+7 or more

Live
Resolves Mar 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 5%.

About this market

If the national House popular vote margin (D − R) minus the VoteHub 2026 generic ballot margin (D − R, time-weighted) at 10:00 AM ET on November 3, 2026 is below -6.9 in the 2026 U.S. House general election, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot?

2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — R+0.9 to D+0.9
30%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — R+1 to R+2.9
20%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — D+1 to D+2.9
19%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — R+3 to R+4.9
12%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — D+3 to D+4.9
10%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — R+5 to R+6.9
7%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — D+5 to D+6.9
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote vs. generic ballot? — D+7 or more
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
5%
probability of YES
Kalshi
5%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Mar 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryElections
StatusOpen