Election Prediction Markets — Live Odds

Home//Elections
Live · Elections · 2026 Midterms

Where the crowd
prices politics

Senate control, House seats, governor races and international elections. Real money on the line means more accurate forecasts than polls. Aggregated across Kalshi and Polymarket.

$6.4MTotal liquidity
1.2KActive markets
2Platforms
🗳️
2026 Midterms
Nov 3, 2026
Live
View all elections markets →
Scope
879 markets
Trading on prediction markets
Kalshi
The regulated leader for US political markets. CFTC-regulated, best for federal election contracts with deep liquidity.
Trade on Kalshi →
Polymarket
The widest global political coverage — including international elections, governor races, and down-ballot contests.
Trade on Polymarket →
Elections market glossary
Yes price
The probability that the event resolves YES. A 65¢ contract = 65% implied probability.
Partisan lean
Historical vote margin vs. national average. A R+8 seat rarely flips even in bad cycles.
Senate control
Dems need to net +2 seats (currently 47) to reach 50+VP. Markets track this as a single contract.
Why traders use election markets
Real money, real signal
WISDOM
Better than polls
Prediction markets aggregate information from thousands of informed participants putting real money on the line — historically more accurate than traditional polling.
SPEED
React faster
Markets update within minutes of breaking news — debate performances, endorsements, and fundraising disclosures move prices instantly.
COMPARE
Side-by-side odds
Kalshi and Polymarket often disagree on close races. The gap between them reveals genuine uncertainty — and sometimes, an arbitrage.