🎯 Other
AI capability growth this year?
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1600 score
Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
7%
No
93%
No (93%)Yes (7%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$165
Liquidity
$6k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 7%. Kalshi has moved up 5pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If an AI model has a score of at least 1600 before Jan 1, 2027 on the LMSYS leaderboard, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · AI capability growth this year?
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1520 score
74%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1530 score
28%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1540 score
21%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1550 score
14%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1650 score
6%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1700 score
5%
AI capability growth this year? — At least 1750 score
1%
Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$165
Liquidity$6k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen