Amelia Earhart’s plane found by December 31, 2026?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 3%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is publicly confirmed that the “Taraia Object,” or any other object, is wreckage or a component of the Lockheed Electra 10E that disappeared with Amelia Earhart and Fred Noonan on July 2, 1937, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of resolving this market, "confirmed" means an official public announcement by the research team, institution, or government body involved in the investigation or its authorized representative, definitively confirming the identity of the object as wreckage or a component of that specific aircraft, based on physical inspection, imaging, or recovered material evidence. The evidence must support identification as Earhart’s specific aircraft; resemblance to an aircraft or identification as a Lockheed Electra alone is insufficient. Independent corroboration is not required. Confirmation of an individual component qualifies; locating or recovering the complete aircraft is not required. Resolution turns on the date of the public confirmation, regardless of when the object was located or inspected. Simply locating or investigating an object, or preliminary statements that it is merely "consistent with" or "could be" Earhart's plane, will not qualify as "confirmed". The primary resolution sources will be official announcements by the research team, institution, or government body involved in the investigation; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used to establish that a qualifying confirmation was publicly issued. Reporting that merely repeats tentative or speculative claims will not qualify.