🗳️ Elections
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, 0-5%
Live
Resolves Oct 4, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
51%
No
49%
No (49%)Yes (51%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$57
Liquidity
$3k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 51%. Kalshi has moved up 15pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 0% to 5%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
48%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
28%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%
24%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, 5-10%
15%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
12%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%
8%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
8%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, 10-15%
7%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
6%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, ≥15%
3%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
2%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Renan Santos wins
2%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Fernando Haddad wins
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥15%
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Romeu Zema wins
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 10-15%
1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Resolution
Oct 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$57
Liquidity$3k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen