📊 Macro
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.5%

Live
Resolves Oct 14, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
1%
No
99%
No (99%)Yes (1%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$4k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 1%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for All Urban Consumers: All Items less Food and Energy increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY)

Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.2%
99%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.1%
99%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.3%
86%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.4%
49%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.5%
19%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.1%
8%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.0%
2%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.9%
2%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.7%
2%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.6%
2%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 2.8%
2%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.3%
1%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.4%
1%
Core inflation in September 2026 (Core CPI YoY) — Above 3.2%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
1%
probability of YES
Kalshi
1%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 14, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$4k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen