📊 Macro
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.5%

Live
Resolves Oct 14, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
81%
No
19%
No (19%)Yes (81%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$6k
Liquidity
$25k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 81%. Kalshi has moved up 35pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by more than 3.5% in the twelve months ending September 2026 (as represented by the one-decimal place value reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics), then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY)

Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.1%
99%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.2%
98%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.3%
98%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.0%
98%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.4%
93%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.6%
44%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.7%
22%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.8%
9%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 3.9%
2%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.3%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.9%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 5.0%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.1%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.6%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.8%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.7%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.5%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.0%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.4%
1%
Inflation in September 2026 (CPI YoY) — Above 4.2%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
81%
probability of YES
Kalshi
81%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 14, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$6k
Liquidity$25k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen