🗳️ Elections
Josh Shapiro margin of victory

Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 25+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
43%
No
57%
No (57%)Yes (43%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$384

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 43%. Kalshi has moved up 23pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 gubernatorial election in Pennsylvania by 25 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Josh Shapiro margin of victory

Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 7+ pts
99%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 4+ pts
99%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 10+ pts
91%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 13+ pts
79%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 19+ pts
71%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 16+ pts
69%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 28+ pts
38%
Josh Shapiro margin of victory — Shapiro, 22+ pts
33%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
43%
probability of YES
Kalshi
43%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$384
CategoryElections
StatusOpen