🎯 Other
When will any company achieve AGI?

When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Oct 1, 2026

Live
Resolves Oct 1, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
1%
No
99%
No (99%)Yes (1%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$12k
Liquidity
$15k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 1%. Kalshi has moved down 5pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Oct 1, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · When will any company achieve AGI?

When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2031
82%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Oct 1, 2028
81%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jul 1, 2028
79%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2030
79%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2029
76%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Apr 1, 2028
76%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2028
61%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Oct 1, 2027
53%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jul 1, 2027
40%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Apr 1, 2027
32%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2027
17%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
1%
probability of YES
Kalshi
1%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 1, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$12k
Liquidity$15k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen