🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 200

Live
Resolves Sep 29, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$2k
Liquidity
$4k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 5%. Kalshi has moved down 15pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Sep 21, 2026 to Sep 27, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 150
95%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 175
75%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 225
2%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/21 - 9/27) — Above 250
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
5%
probability of YES
Kalshi
5%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Sep 29, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$2k
Liquidity$4k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen