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What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 7.0

Live
Resolves Oct 11, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
4%
No
96%
No (96%)Yes (4%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$293
Liquidity
$281

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 4%.

About this market

If the highest USGS-reported earthquake magnitude worldwide during Oct 11, 2026 from 12:00:00 AM through 11:59:59 PM UTC is 7.0 or higher, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026?

What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.4
12%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.6
7%
What will the biggest earthquake be on Oct 11, 2026? — Magnitude of at least 6.8
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
4%
probability of YES
Kalshi
4%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 11, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$293
Liquidity$281
CategoryOther
StatusOpen