🗳️ Elections
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, 5-10%
Live
Resolves Oct 4, 2027KalshiVolume-weighted avg
7%
No
93%
No (93%)Yes (7%)
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$1k
Liquidity
$3k
Market intelligence
Kalshi currently prices this at 7%. Kalshi has moved down 8pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
If the margin of victory for Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election falls within 5% to 10%, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.
All outcomes · Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, 0-5%
64%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
61%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by less than 5%?
24%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 0-5%
23%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
8%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 5-10%
4%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 5–10%?
3%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, ≥15%
3%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, ≥15%
2%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by 10–15%?
2%
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 10%?
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Lula da Silva, 10-15%
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Romeu Zema wins
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Renan Santos wins
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Flávio Bolsonaro, 10-15%
1%
Brazil Presidential Election First Round: Margin of Victory — Fernando Haddad wins
1%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election by at least 15%?
1%
Will Renan Santos win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Will another person win the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
0%
Resolution
Oct 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1k
Liquidity$3k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen