Will there be an 8 magnitude earthquake in California before 2027? — Before 2027

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

97%

No (97%)Yes (3%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 3%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If there is at least an earthquake of 8 magnitude with an epicenter in California or its territorial waters before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Avg probability

probability of YES

Kalshi

3%Check

TG WA

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Resolution

Jan 1, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$5k

Liquidity$241k

CategoryOther

StatusOpen