Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 10

Live

Resolves Oct 6, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

11%

89%

No (89%)Yes (11%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 11%.

About this market

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 10 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 4

93%

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 6

64%

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 8

32%

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 12

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 14

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

11%

probability of YES

Kalshi

11%Check

TG WA

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Resolution

Oct 6, 2026

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$2k

Liquidity$1k

CategoryElections

StatusOpen