🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 15

Live
Resolves Oct 6, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
96%
No
4%
No (4%)Yes (96%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$11k
Liquidity
$644

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 96%.

About this market

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 15 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 10
97%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 20
80%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 25
44%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 30
16%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 35
9%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 40
5%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 45
4%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 50
2%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 75
1%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 100
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
96%
probability of YES
Kalshi
96%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$11k
Liquidity$644
CategoryElections
StatusOpen