🗳️ Elections
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Republicans win

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
5%
No
95%
No (95%)Yes (5%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$9k
Liquidity
$370k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 5%. Kalshi has moved down 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Democratic margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives national popular vote is between -100 and 0 percentage points, inclusive of its lower bound and exclusive of its upper bound, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)

2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 8 to 10%
30%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 10 to 12%
22%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 6 to 8%
17%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 12 to 14%
13%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 4 to 6%
8%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 14 to 16%
6%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 0 to 2%
4%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 2 to 4%
3%
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot) — Democrats, 16% and above
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
5%
probability of YES
Kalshi
5%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$9k
Liquidity$370k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen