🎯 Other

Will a Category 4 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

23%

77%

No (77%)Yes (23%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 23%.

About this market

If a Category 4 hurricane makes landfall in Tampa (defined coastal area: the coastline within the municipal boundaries of the City of Tampa, Florida) from October 8, 2026 at 8:00:00 PM EDT until, but excluding, January 1, 2027 at 12:00 AM ET, as reported by the National Hurricane Center, then the market resolves to Yes.

Other

Will a Category 5 hurricane make landfall in Tampa before 2027?

Other

25%

Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Other

13%

Will any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?

Other

Trade this marketLive prices

Avg probability

23%