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10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 4.75% or above

Live
Resolves Dec 31, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
58%
No
42%
No (42%)Yes (58%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$417
Liquidity
$383

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 58%. Kalshi has moved down 31pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the par yield for the 10Y U.S. Treasury is above 4.74% on Dec 31, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · 10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027?

10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 2% or above
97%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 3.5% or above
97%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 2.75% or above
96%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 3.25% or above
91%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 3% or above
91%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 4% or above
91%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 2.5% or above
89%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 2.25% or above
88%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 3.75% or above
85%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 4.5% or above
71%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 4.25% or above
70%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 5% or above
61%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 5.75% or above
41%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 5.25% or above
40%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 5.5% or above
37%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 6.75% or above
28%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 6.25% or above
24%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 6% or above
22%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 7.5% or above
19%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 8% or above
19%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 6.5% or above
17%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 7.25% or above
15%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 7% or above
8%
10Y US Treasury yield on Dec 31, 2027? — 7.75% or above
7%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
58%
probability of YES
Kalshi
58%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Dec 31, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$417
Liquidity$383
CategoryOther
StatusOpen