🗳️ Elections
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 14

Live
Resolves Oct 6, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
2%
No
98%
No (98%)Yes (2%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$17k
Liquidity
$3k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 2%.

About this market

If the highest single-day number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 14 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 4
93%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 6
64%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 8
32%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 10
15%
Peak traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 12
7%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
2%
probability of YES
Kalshi
2%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$17k
Liquidity$3k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen