Will SpaceX have between 140-159 launches in 2026?

Live

Resolves Jan 1, 2027Polymarket

Volume-weighted avg

70%

30%

No (30%)Yes (70%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 70%. Polymarket has moved down 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve according to the number of SpaceX launches between January 1, 2026, 12:00AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. If the reported total number of SpaceX launches falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source for this market will be https://www.spacex.com/launches.