Will Koguma peak at severe tropical storm grade or weaker?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 2%.
About this market
This market will resolve according to the peak intensity of Koguma. Peak intensity means the highest intensity class the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) assigns to Koguma in an analysis published for the storm. Exactly one outcome in this market will resolve to "Yes". If JMA never assigns Koguma an intensity class, this market will resolve to "Severe tropical storm or weaker". JMA's own bounds: "Severe tropical storm or weaker" is under 33 m/s (64 kt), "Strong" is 33 to 44 m/s (64 to 85 kt), "Very strong" is 44 to 54 m/s (85 to 105 kt), and "Violent" is 54 m/s (105 kt) or more. JMA states the intensity class in the "Intensity" field of each analysis it publishes for the storm, alongside the storm's "Grade", and assigns an intensity class only to a cyclone it grades "TY". Forecast entries will not be considered for resolution. Classifications issued by any agency other than JMA will not be considered for resolution. Post-season best track data for Koguma will not be considered for resolution. This market will resolve once JMA stops publishing analyses for Koguma. If JMA has not stopped publishing analyses for Koguma by October 20, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the highest intensity class published up to that time. No substitute data provider will be used. Revisions published before JMA stops publishing analyses for Koguma will be considered; revisions published after that point will not be considered for resolution. If JMA corrects an analysis as erroneous before this market resolves, the corrected analysis will be used. If JMA removes an analysis as erroneous without replacement, the highest intensity class published in the remaining analyses will be used. Otherwise the published analysis stands. Temporary display glitches that do not appear in JMA's published data will not be considered. Revisions remain subject to the cutoff above. The only exception is a correction of a clearly erroneous analysis under the preceding paragraph, which w