Pakistan military action against Afghanistan by November 15, 2026?
Market intelligence
Polymarket currently prices this at 17%. Polymarket has moved down 23pp over the past 7 days.
About this market
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Pakistan takes a qualifying military action against Afghanistan between this market’s creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Afghanistan Time (AFT). Otherwise this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by Pakistan, that directly impacts Afghanistan. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The qualifying military action must be carried out by the armed forces of Pakistan. Actions carried out by private military contractors, mercenaries, or proxy forces will not qualify. Where a qualifying action is carried out in the course of a coalition or multinational operation, it will qualify only if the armed forces of Pakistan directly conducted the strike. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Afghanistan do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. "Afghanistan" refers to the terrestrial territory of Afghanistan, including its internal waters. Afghanistan’s airspace is not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Afghanistan as of m