🎯 Other

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

Live
Resolves Dec 31, 2026Polymarket
Volume-weighted avg
50%
No
50%
No (50%)Yes (50%)
Polymarket
50%
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
—

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
50%
probability of YES
Polymarket
50%Trade
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Resolution
Dec 31, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity—
CategoryOther
StatusOpen