🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 200

Live
Resolves Oct 6, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
37%
No
63%
No (63%)Yes (37%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$213
Liquidity
$213

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 37%.

About this market

If the number of transit calls through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 200 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4)

Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 150
82%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 175
63%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 225
15%
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 250
2%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
37%
probability of YES
Kalshi
37%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$213
Liquidity$213
CategoryElections
StatusOpen