🗳️ Elections
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 30

Live
Resolves Oct 6, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
15%
No
85%
No (85%)Yes (15%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$4k
Liquidity
$4k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 15%.

About this market

If the number of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch is above 30 from Sep 28, 2026 to Oct 4, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4)

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 10
97%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 15
95%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 20
80%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 25
44%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 35
9%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 40
5%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 45
4%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 50
2%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 75
1%
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz? (9/28 - 10/4) — Above 100
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
15%
probability of YES
Kalshi
15%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 6, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$4k
Liquidity$4k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen