📊 Macro
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.0%

Live
Resolves Oct 2, 2026Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
23%
No
77%
No (77%)Yes (23%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Macro
Vol 24h
$386
Liquidity
$3k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 23%. Kalshi has moved up 2pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Unemployment rate is exactly 4.0% in Sep 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Unemployment rate in Sep 2026?

Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.1%
40%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.2%
31%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 5.3%
7%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.4%
7%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 5.4%
6%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.3%
6%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 5.5%
6%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.9%
5%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.6%
5%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.7%
5%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.5%
5%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.4%
5%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.3%
5%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.9%
3%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.5%
2%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 5.1%
2%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 5.0%
2%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 5.2%
2%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.8%
1%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 3.8%
1%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.7%
1%
Unemployment rate in Sep 2026? — Exactly 4.6%
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
23%
probability of YES
Kalshi
23%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 2, 2026
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$386
Liquidity$3k
CategoryMacro
StatusOpen