US nominal GDP growth in Q2 2026 — Above 1.5%

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 80%. Kalshi has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the percent change in U.S. nominal GDP in Q2 2026, rounded to the nearest one-hundredth of a percent according to the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis’s Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) series, is above 1.5, then the market resolves to Yes.