🗳️ Elections
Virginia Senate margin of victory

Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 11+ pts

Live
Resolves Nov 3, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
81%
No
19%
No (19%)Yes (81%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
—
Liquidity
$12

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 81%.

About this market

If the Democratic Party wins the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Virginia by 11 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Virginia Senate margin of victory

Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 7+ pts
92%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 9+ pts
84%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 13+ pts
69%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 15+ pts
61%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 17+ pts
57%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 19+ pts
40%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 21+ pts
39%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 23+ pts
25%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 25+ pts
17%
Virginia Senate margin of victory — Warner, 27+ pts
13%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
81%
probability of YES
Kalshi
81%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Nov 3, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume—
Liquidity$12
CategoryElections
StatusOpen