🎯 Other
When will any company achieve AGI?

When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2031

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2031Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
81%
No
19%
No (19%)Yes (81%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Other
Vol 24h
$1
Liquidity
$4k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 81%. Kalshi has moved down 4pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If any company (public or private) officially announces that it has achieved Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) after market issuance and before Jan 1, 2031, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · When will any company achieve AGI?

When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2030
79%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Oct 1, 2028
77%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2029
77%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jul 1, 2028
76%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Apr 1, 2028
74%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2028
67%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Oct 1, 2027
49%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jul 1, 2027
45%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Apr 1, 2027
31%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Jan 1, 2027
13%
When will any company achieve AGI? — Before Oct 1, 2026
1%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
81%
probability of YES
Kalshi
81%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2031
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$1
Liquidity$4k
CategoryOther
StatusOpen