Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 73%. Polymarket has moved up 7pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

All outcomes · How high will 10-year Treasury yield go before 2027?