Will the Gävle Goat burn in 2026?

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 29%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Gävle Goat, a traditional Christmas display erected annually in Gävle, Sweden, is set on fire by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”. Any fire on the Gävle Goat’s main structure will qualify, regardless of the extent of the damage or whether the goat remains standing; attempts that do not ignite the goat will not qualify. If the Gävle Goat is destroyed by other means, this will not qualify. The fire must be confirmed by an official Gävle Goat social media account, the City of Gävle’s official website, or a consensus of credible reporting.

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