Will the UK raise taxes in the October Budget?

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 68%. Kalshi has moved down 20pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the United Kingdom agrees to or announces tax-policy measures first officially announced in the Budget presented on October 28, 2026 whose combined effect increases UK tax receipts relative to the pre-Budget baseline across the full forecast period in HM Treasury's final Budget policy-decisions scorecard before Oct 29, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

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