Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by December 31, 2026?

Market intelligence

Polymarket currently prices this at 3%. Polymarket has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Venezuela between November 3, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Venezuela or the United States as of September 6, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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