🗳️ Elections

Will Trump issue Obamacare rebates before Election Day?

Live

Resolves Nov 3, 2026Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

56%

44%

No (44%)Yes (56%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 56%. Kalshi has moved down 11pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If it is reported by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Nov 3, 2026 that the Trump administration's new federal ACA rebate initiative first reported on September 9, 2026, or a revised or successor implementation of that initiative, has actually issued rebates totaling at least $100 to each of at least 100,000 actual recipients, then the market resolves to Yes.