🗳️ Elections

2026: Trump's bad year?

Live

Resolves Dec 31, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

91%

No (91%)Yes (9%)

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Probability History

Market snapshot

Status

Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 9%. Kalshi has moved up 3pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If ALL of the following occur: Trump's VoteHub approval rating drops below 35% in 2026 AND Democrats win control of the House of Representatives after the midterms AND the U.S. enters a recession between Q4 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive) AND the U.S. unemployment rate (U-3) is at least 5% in any month in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.