🗳️ Elections

AfD in a German state government in 2026?

Live
Resolves Jan 1, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
36%
No
64%
No (64%)Yes (36%)
Check on Kalshi →
Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$127
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 36%. Kalshi has moved down 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the Alternative fuer Deutschland has entered a German state government after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

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Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
36%
probability of YES
Kalshi
36%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Jan 1, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$127
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen