Blue wave in 2026? — Will Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House AND hold 49 or more seats in the Senate?

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Resolves Feb 1, 2027Kalshi

Volume-weighted avg

86%

14%

No (14%)Yes (86%)

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Probability History

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Open

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 86%. Kalshi has moved up 1pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If ALL of the following occur: Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House after the 2026 midterms AND Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate after the 2026 midterms, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Blue wave in 2026?

Blue wave in 2026?

91%

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Avg probability

86%

probability of YES

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Resolution

Feb 1, 2027

Market is open

Market stats

24h volume$924k

Liquidity$3.8m

CategoryElections

StatusOpen