🗳️ Elections
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round)

Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 45%

Live
Resolves Oct 4, 2027Kalshi
Volume-weighted avg
41%
No
59%
No (59%)Yes (41%)
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Probability History
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Market snapshot
Status
Open
Category
Elections
Vol 24h
$818
Liquidity
$1k

Market intelligence

Kalshi currently prices this at 41%. Kalshi has moved up 10pp over the past 7 days.

About this market

If the certified percentage of the popular vote received by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election is 45% to 100%, inclusive of both endpoints, then the market resolves to Yes.

All outcomes · Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round)

Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 37%
95%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 42%
94%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 40%
93%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 44%
73%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 48%
51%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 46%
24%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 50%
7%
Brazil presidential election: Lula vote percent (1st round) — At least 53%
3%
Trade this marketLive prices
Avg probability
41%
probability of YES
Kalshi
41%Check
TGWA
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Resolution
Oct 4, 2027
Market is open
Market stats
24h volume$818
Liquidity$1k
CategoryElections
StatusOpen